The other day, I mentioned my astonishment at the Housing Affordability and Stimulus Plan and how it really leaves California (the most troubled housing markets in the country) out in the cold.

Then the announcement came regarding an $8,000 tax credit.  Forgive me, but whoop-dee-do.

While this may be meaningful in the lower price points, we aren’t having trouble there these days.  Market time in the under 500,000 range is running around 4 months, and 30 days if it’s not a short sale.  Clearly, that is a strong seller’s market.

Where do we need help?  The higher price points are hit hard by tight financing, consumer confidence, and high inventory.  And frankly, in those price points, the value of a home could potential fall $8,000 while you are in escrow.  Not to mention, first time buyers that qualify for the tax credit, aren’t generally buying in that price point – so I guess that doesn’t excite me much.

Most recently, plans were announced to cut mortgage deductions for those in the higher income tax bracket.   Now, if you live in Orange County and you are making $208,850 or more, you are living a lifestyle that is a far cry from someone living in the Midwest on the same income.

Example:

You may have purchased a home in 2006 that you are affording (barely because your bonus didn’t come through this year), and you may have lost 30% of the value since you purchased.  Since you are considered part of the ‘wealthy’ in the country, you are now on the verge of loosing some of your mortgage deduction.  You know – the mortgage you’ve been trying to hang onto, even though you owe more than the house is worth….

I’m waiting for the part of this plan that impacts California.  Maybe I wasn’t clear last time I mentioned this – one that impacts California in a positive way.

Recently Jonathon Lansner posted a podcast that he did with Steven Thomas of Altera Real Estate.  Great information whether you are a buyer or seller in Orange County.  Mr. Thomas posts his Market Time Report every two weeks and continues to be an excellent resource for analysis on Orange County real estate.

If you are sizing up a purchase or sale, looking for an opinion on ‘the bottom’, this is worth 13 minutes.

After years in this business, my husband has learned a few realities about my business:

1. “I just have to return this one phone call.”  Translation: 30 minutes and several phone calls.
2. “I just have to run down to my office and shoot out a quick email.”  Translation: 20 + minutes in the office.
3. “I’ll be in my office catching up for just a bit.”  Sadly the translation: I’ll be in bed about an hour after you.

Consequently, he has affectionately referred to my home office as, ‘The Black Hole.’  I have three children so he certainly appreciates the fact that I get things done when I have time and unfortunately, that isn’t always 9 to 5.

This week, something fun came out of ‘The Black Hole’ that I’m excited to launch:  My Las Flores hyperlocal community blog.

After working in the Orange County community of Las Flores for several years, I began to rethink the methods for marketing.  Since the launch of OC Real EstateVoice, I knew my business was headed in a profoundly new direction.  I knew that consumers were looking for information about a community (listings, trends, values) not just another, ‘Look what I sold!’ marketing piece from an agent.  Hence, the birth of the My Las Flores site.

I’ve got a couple tweeks to make as of yet – the video has to be redone.  It’s excruciatingly long and I made the video on garbage day with garbage cans out on every street.   Bad news, so this will be my project for the coming weekend.  But overall, I like the direction it’s heading in.

Every now and then I emerge from ‘The Black Hole’ and something satisfyingly ‘tangible’ is born.  This is one of those weeks. 

The Homeowner Affordability and Stability Plan was recently released.  It attempts to address some of the issues that the current housing market is struggling with and I have been through some of the details and as it currently is written, I’m disappointed.

Near the end of December last year I posted the article about about the top 10 worst housing markets in the country, according to CNN.  Unfortunately, 8 out of 10 were in the state of California.  Now keep in mind, California is a massive factor in our national economy.  Our Gross Domestic Product is larger than all but 8 countries in the world.   You will not fix this housing crisis if you don’t address the state of California.

The plan that came out has one elemental problem (there are others but this one is a deal breaker) – it only applies to Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac backed loans.  Translation:  if the loan is over $417,000, no deal.

Let’s examine this just a bit.  In most parts of Orange County, in 2004,  2005, 2006, and 2007, you couldn’t get much more than a very small condo for $417,000.  You couldn’t buy a single family home in most parts of Orange County for under $600,000.   The people that are most at risk are the people that purchased during that period of time- and the big Affordability Plan – doesn’t apply to them.

Look at the numbers for the big California markets – Los Angeles, San Diego, the Bay Area – it doesn’t change.

So call me crazy, but I don’t get it.  Hell, I’m happy for the folks in the midwest that this has an impact on.  I’m happy for the people that will benefit from it.  But I’m not sure this solves the problem at hand.

You can solve this for the folks in Kansas, but if you leave out 8 out of 10 of the worst housing markets in the country, are you really addressing core of the problem?  Just sayin’.

Okay – maybe not technically snow but it sure looked like it.  This mornings hail storm was photographed and posted on Twitter by @dawnmiller.  Thanks Dawn for allowing me to share your cool photos.

These were taken in Lake Forest in South Orange County (click on them for the full view):

Remember those long car rides that seemed to last forever?  I used to pester my poor parents with the tired question, “Are we there yet?”  As a mother to 3 kids, 10 and under, I’m now on the receiving end of that tired question.

This Orange County real estate market is one of those long car rides where we are all asking the same question about the bottom of this market – “Are we there yet?”  I even have moments where I want to say in my whiniest voice, “How much longer, Mom?”

Did you ever notice that your parents were intentionally vague?  There were no specifics.  Now, as a parent, I understand why.  The answer can vary depending on traffic, bathroom breaks, if we stop to eat, and of course the potential need to pull over to break up a fight.

So if you are wondering how much longer – I’m right there with you.  But it depends.  It depends on how the foreclosure market is impacted by government intervention.  Will it help or just delay the the healing of this market?  How available is money?  Will the strict lending guidelines continue?

But if you keep your eyes peeled, you may see a few roadsigns that will give you some clues.  Watch the percentages of distressed inventory versus traditional sellers.  Watch the lending trends.  Watch the average days on market.  Track absorption rates.  Notice the listing price and the final sale price.  All of these are indicators of where we are on this road trip.

So are we almost there?  The answer just might be, yes.