The real estate market is a strange world right now.  It’s plagued by distress sales, foreclosures, a challenging lending environment, and economic uncertainties, and yet there are certain price points where inventory is so low that sellers are receiving multiple offers within days of listing.  If the home is priced right and it’s under $500,000 – it will sell – fast.

Many investors and fence sitters feel like with the steep declines in values, it’s time to jump back into the Orange County real estate market.  And guess what?  They have cash.  This video done by Tyler Wood - my go-to-guy for all Big Bear real estate needs – illustrates a similar dynamic in their market and raises some important questions for cash buyers to consider.

So what is the value of an all cash offer?

Are YOU one of those cash buyers?

There is no question that coming into a multiple offer situation with cash will give you an advantage if the other offers have to secure financing.  But as Wood points out, you may be finding that you aren’t the only cash buyer.

But even if you are the only cash buyer in a multiple offer situation – what advantage does that give you in your negotiation?  Let’s look at the potential benefits that the seller has when they have an interested, all cash buyer:

1. The question of the buyer’s ability to secure financing goes away.
2. A possible quick escrow period.
3. Less contingencies to contend with.  No loan contingency.  No need  to appraise.

So what is the value of those things to a seller?  What monetary value do you place on that?  Clearly, the answer will vary depending on a seller’s circumstances and how important a sure and quick close is for them.

I know in theory that ‘Cash is King’.  But, I think you’ll find that a seller, if given a choice via multiple offers, will go with a buyer that requires a loan at full price rather than a buyer that is offering 10% off asking just because they have cash.

It’s important to note that at the end of a transaction – whether it’s a cash buyer, or a bank that funds a buyer’s loan, – IT’S ALL CASH.  Either way, the money is the same in the final analysis.

Wagon Wheel

Wagon Wheel is small community in Trabuco Canyon located off Oso Parkway not far from the south gate of Coto de Caza.  The homes were built in the mid 90’s by Kaufman & Broad who subsidized the original mello roos bonds making it known in part, for it’s very reasonable tax rate.

Homes range in size from the condos in the Dakotas (835 to 1,117 square feet) to the gated community of Stonecliff (up to just over 3,000 square feet).

Current market conditions in Wagon Wheel are not dissimilar to Orange County as a whole.  The upper price points remain very slow and the lower price points are plagued by distress inventory.

Market Conditions

Note that there is very little bank owned inventory on the market currently, but given the recent completion of the moratorium on foreclosures, we are seeing Notice of Defaults on the rise again and in the coming months, I expect to see bank owned homes back on the rise in Wagon Wheel and all over Orange County.

The highest sale year to date is in the California Laredo tract at $725,000 in February.  The next closest sale was $600,000.  The poor sale history for the upper price points is  not isolated to Wagon Wheel and is seen across the market due to the lack of available financing and buyer cautiousness.

The highest sale in the last 30 days was in the California Landmark tract, a traditional sale for $556,000.  Between $500,001 and $750,000, there are 5 available properties and 3 in escrow.

Under $500,000 is plagued by distress sales.  Currently 4 out of 5 active listings are short sales, yet the 4 equity sellers currently in escrow reflect the buyer demand – buyers are often reluctant to wait out the lengthy short sale process and opt for a traditional sale.

Questions?

If you are wondering how these statistics and trends impact your buying, or selling process, please don’t hesitate to let me know.  I’m always happy to help.  No pressure and no obligations.  I can be reached at (949) 939-2514 or emailed at linsey@ocrealestatevoice.com.

This information and stats are from SoCalMLS and are deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

This post is LONG, but if you are thinking of buying a short sale (or if you’re an agent looking for an outlet for your short sale frustrations),  PLEASE read.  Understanding this information is a must.

I completely understand the allure of the short sales when you are a buyer.  The prices are attractive and there are SO many of them.  They have become a  necessary evil of the Orange County real estate market.  I get it.

If you really want to pursue a short sale, be forewarned.  Know what you are getting into, understand the risks, the pitfalls, and what is  required to make them happen from a buyer perspective.  They may, or may not, be worth it.

What is a Short Sale?

The seller’s obligations in a sale (loans, encumbrances, and closing costs), exceed the value of the property.  The seller must prove a hardship (job loss, wage reduction, divorce, health crisis, lack of assets) to qualify for a short sale.

A Few Realities

• There is no Standard Operating Procedures for the banking industry to handle short sales.  Every bank has different guidelines and manages them differently; even negotiators within the same bank manage them differently.

• This is important:  Nearly across the board, a banking institution will not consider a seller’s hardship application until they submit an offer with a short sale.  What does this mean to a buyer?  Your offer is used to see if they qualify in the first place.  You may sit in escrow for weeks while the bank considers not your offer, but the seller’s circumstances.

• There is no Standard Operating Procedures for how agents handle their short sale listings.  Frankly, I think there is a lot of irresponsibility in this area.

• Many agents leave their listings ACTIVE in the MLS even though they have an offer submitted to the bank.  Once an agent has a good offer with a solid buyer, it should go in Backup position.  The bank will only look at ONE offer – highest and best – anyway.  Why waste an agent’s time, a buyer’s time and emotion, showing a property that is not really available?

• Even Banks will ask the listing to remain Active after an offer is submitted.  Note the conversation with this agent on Twitter.

• The SoCalMLS has a Special Condition field where agents are required to specify that the short sale has an offer submitted to the bank.  Unfortunately, most agents don’t use it.

• An ‘Approved Short Sale‘ does not necessarily mean that the process will go any faster.  See Countrywide’s response on my short sale last year.

• A short sale process will take as little as 60 days (very rare) or as much as 4 to 6 months (common).

• The list price is not a reflection of what the bank will, or will not, take. The listing price is positioned to generate offers.  Remember, the bank hasn’t even looked at these seller’s situation yet, let alone evaluate the the market value of the home.

• There may be past due HOA fees, property taxes, or other expenses, that the bank will ask for a buyer to cover.

• If the seller declares bankruptcy during the process, your deposit becomes a frozen asset that you likely wait a fair amount of time to recover – if you do.

• Many short sales ultimately foreclose.  Why?  If you find out please tell me.  There is often NO LOGIC in the way banks (and investors) approve, or disapprove these.

• More banks are trying to do loan modifications for sellers rather than approve short sales and in some instances, they are incentivized by the government to do so.

Real Life Examples

The following are scenarios that have been experienced by me, my agents, colleagues, and my buyers.

• My Listing last May:  I had 8 offers in 3 days.  The highest was $580,000 and it took 4 months to get an approval from Countrywide.  By the time it was approved, the market value had fallen precipitously and the buyer was no longer interested.  When I asked Countrywide if the process would go more quickly with a new buyer given the hardship had been approved, their response was that the each buyer was a new file and they couldn’t provide better than a 4 to 6 month time frame.  The home sold for $490,000 4 1/2 months later.

• An agent within my company, had a short sale in escrow with a solid buyer for 90 days.  The bank asked the insolvent seller to come to the table with $3,500 on the $165,000 sale.  When the seller was unable to, the bank refused the short sale.  The home is currently vacant and worth about $145,000 6 months later.  Currently, it’s not in foreclosure and the seller hasn’t made a payment in about a year.

• This week alone, I’ve shown 2 different short sales, marketed on the MLS as Active, that already had offers submitted to the bank without notation in the listing.  When I called expressing my buyer’s interest in one of the properties, the agent subsequently told me, ‘the deal is done’.  When asked, “Then why is it active?”, his response was, “Don’t tell me how to run my business, sweetheart.”  BTW – Don’t call me sweetheart unless you’re loving me or you’re my husband. 

• One of my recent short sale listings was in escrow 60 days with a qualified, ready-to-go buyer.  In that time, the bank reviewed the seller’s hardship, denied it, and offered a very poor loan modification.  Buyers lost 60 days and their offer was never considered.

• I currently have an investor buyer in escrow on an ‘approved short sale’. We’ve been in escrow 90 days on a property that had an Notice of Default filed in March 2007!  Not only has there been no news, the listing agent has told me essentially – don’t call us, we’ll call you if there is an update.  Not very reassuring to my buyer.

This is the tip of a massive iceberg.  So if you want to buy a short sale, you certainly have my blessings.  Just be armed with patience, don’t become emotionally attached to the property, and be prepared to potentially go through the process more than once.

If you have questions, if you think I’ve gotten any of this wrong, or if I’ve just scared the hell out of you – leave a comment or give me a call.  Happy to chat with you.  If you want to create a strategy to buy in Orange County – whether it’s a short sale, bank owned, or an equity seller, just let me know and I’m happy to help.

Happy House Hunting!

Today’s Microscope on the Market focuses on the Laguna Niguel real estate market.

Homes Under $500,000

In the under $500,000 market, Laguna Niguel does not vary from any of the cities I focused  on in South Orange County with a whopping 63.9% of the active properties in a short sale situation.  Couple of things to note – it would appear that there is significant movement with 71 properties in escrow.  Sadly, 38 of them are short sales and those can sit in escrow for 60 to 180 days and that can skew the perception of significant movement.  Notice only 18 have actually closed escrow in the last 30 days.

I want to also point out the very low number of bank owned inventory.  Pay close attention to this number in the coming months.  It will increase again based on the end of the moratorium on Notice of Defaults.  Filings are back up to levels prior to the moratorium so watch for this number to increase.

Also of note, despite the large supply of short sales, buyers still look to bank owned homes and equity sellers for their purchases by a significant degree in relation to the supply.

Homes $500,001 to $750,000

Again, despite the large number of short sales, buyers love bank owned inventory and it doesn’t last on the market and their is still a significant demand for reasonable equity sellers.

Homes Over $750,001

As I noted in Coto last week, there is just very little in the upper price points that is moving.  At this rate of consumption (12 homes a month), we have a 12.25 month supply of homes.  If nothing else were to list in this price range, it would take us over a year to consume the existing inventory with current buyer demand.

The good news in Laguna Niguel – there is very little bank owned inventory and very few short sale listings.  That can be good news for values in the coming year.  I’m not suggesting any appreciation guys – but even with slow sales, these folks may have the financial strength to hang on.

When you are looking to buy a home in Orange County, or anywhere else for that matter, it is critical to drill down into the numbers for the sector of the market that you are looking at.  Orange County numbers are wonderful benchmarks to know, but our market is made up also of submarkets within the OC.  It’s important to understand Absorption Rates, Average Days on Market, price per square foot, sale price to list price, etc.

For every buyer I’m working with, I try to do an analysis that really tells the story of the market they are hoping to buy in.  This allows them to have a realistic picture of the market and compete effectively for the home they hope to buy.

If you are a seller, these numbers will be important to you too.  Even if you are not a buyer or seller right now, hang in there.  This may seem dry, but I’ll try to make it fun.  There is a story told by the numbers every time! 

Today, I did some research for an investor I am working with in Rancho Santa Margarita.  She is looking for a condo around $250,000 that has at least 2 bedrooms and 1 car garage.  I looked at the numbers for Rancho Santa Margarita between $200,000 and $300,000, with a minimum of 2 bedrooms and 1 garage – Active, In Escrow, and Closed Sales going 90 days back.  (I recently did this analysis for a Mission Viejo buyer and only included sales over the previous 30 days, but in this instance that would have been swayed too heavily by the holidays).  Here’s what I found for this submarket:

Active Inventory – 47 Listings

• 34 Short Sales or 72%
• 9 Bank Owned or 19%
• 4 Traditional Sellers or 9%

In Escrow – 22 Listings

• 9 Short Sales or 41%
• 9 Bank Owned or 41%
• 4 Traditional Sellers or 19%

Closed Sales in the Last 90 Days – 27 Listings

• 10 Short Sales or 37%
• 10 Bank Owned or 37%
• 8 Traditional Sellers or 30%

Analysis of Closed Sales

• Short Sales:  Average Days on Market – 96, Sale Price to List 102.17%, $256.47 price per sq. ft.
• Bank Owned: Average Days on Market – 35, Sale Price to List 98.89%,  $248.17 price per sq. ft.
• Traditional Sellers: Average Days on Market – 33 (there was one outlier here that if removed would have made it 14), Sale Price to List Price 96.43%, $263.35 price per sq. ft.

Hey wake up! This is fun – really!

So what does all this tell us?

I’m a little surprised to see that some short sales are getting done in this price range.  We still have a large swing in the percentage of active inventory versus closed sales within the short sale market, but maybe the banks are starting to pull it together.  I’ll be watching.

It’s also still clear that the traditional seller is able to secure a slightly higher price.  The swing was much greater in the Mission Viejo analysis I did earlier, but it is still there.  Why?  I think buyers still love to have full disclosure from a real seller.  They also tend to be properties in slightly better condition.  And the best part – you submit an offer, and a real live person actually responds in sometimes as soon as 24 hours!  Wow!

Still the best ‘deal’ going is the bank owned home.  Just beware, is it still a ‘deal’ if you have to put in a lot of money after the close?  Maybe yes, maybe no.  Each property will require individual analysis to make sure that one is really getting a good value for the home.

Hope this helps my investor – and you.  If you ever are in need of a little Microscope on the Market – just let me know.  Just make sure you’ve had your coffee first.

Steven Thomas, President of Altera Real Estate recently released his latest Orange County Housing Report and it is definitely worth taking the time to review if you are curious about how the 2008 housing market finished and the possible outlook for 2009. It’s a very comprehensive summary.

I would encourage you to review the charts for Active Listings and Pending Sales. I love the way that it visually lays out the ‘05, ‘06, ‘07, and ‘08 numbers for comparison.

One thing worth noting is that current inventory is way down – 11,842 homes off the March peak of 15,617. Homeowners have definitely taken to heart that selling will not be easy and pricing is critical. If they don’t have to sell, they generally are opting not to.

The biggest facet of our current market is the distressed inventory. As I’ve continued to repeat here, one of the indicators that a recovery is on the horizon is declining numbers in the distressed sector of the market. Right now, Thomas states that 46% of all the current inventory are distressed sales; 76% of those are short sales and 24% are foreclosures.

So where is the demand? Believe it or not, it is a strong seller’s market when it comes to foreclosures and they are selling at 101% of asking price.

Short sales continue to be a frustrating facet of the market because they continue to stay active on the market while a bank approves the offers they have pending. This creates negative and misleading numbers when one analyzes the active inventory. These offers can take weeks, even months, for the bank to approve. The sale to list price on short sales is running at 97%.

If you have questions about how these numbers impact your buying or selling plans, I’m happy to discuss it with you.

This may not be the most politically correct piece that I’ll write but that’s never been my goal here on OC Voice.  So here goes….

One of my clients sent me a link to an article published online on CNBC about ‘Mortgage Re-Defaults Rising with No Sign of Slowing’.  The article states that, “…after 6 months, nearly 37 percent of mortgage loans modified in the first quarter were 60 or more days delinquent,”  and goes on to say that, “after three months, 19 percent were 60 or more days delinquent or in the process of foreclosure.”

There is no question that watching a family lose their home is beyond heartbreaking.  The article did point out a small piece of good news in this fiasco – 9 out of 10 home loans are current.

The article has me thinking about a few things.  Why does someone default?

The rates on the adjustables are actually lower in recent months than they were a year ago.  In addition to that, some of the Interest Only notes have yet to adjust at all.  Payments in many cases are the same, or even less than they were one year ago.

I’ve seen that in some instances, people frankly are not interested in paying $500,000 for a home that is now worth $375,000 and decide to walk away from the property.  Does a loan modification make sense for those owners?

Lending restrictions were way too lenient up until recently.  Some folks were approved for loans that they never would have qualified for under the strict requirements of today’s lending standards.  Does a loan modification make sense for those owners?

Temporarily reducing the interest rate, tacking on the arrears to the back-end of the loan may provide immediate relief but is it only delaying the inevitable?  Do loan modifications like this make sense?

Maybe it’s time to be honest and say that current levels of home ownership are higher than they’ve ever been, and just maybe, that isn’t a good thing.  It’s not good for the homeowners that aren’t really qualified, and it’s not good for the housing market.

Maybe it’s time to really help those homeowners get out from underneath the homes that they cannot sell for what they owe.  Maybe it’s time to let this market run it’s course without trying to fix it with band-aides and superglue.  Maybe it’s time to get a really efficient and effective short sale process to assist these distressed homeowners.

Bailout plans that focus on loan modifications and saving the homes may not necessarily be the answer.  As I’ve said before, where is a Bailout plan that really deals with the heart of the crisis?  Where is a plan that is effectively dealing with the real issues on Mainstreet?   I’m waiting…and not patiently.

I had this conversation on Twitter today and had to share it as further evidence of the common problems we see in the marketplace when it comes to the handling of Short Sales.  In case you are not familiar with Twitter, it’s a social media and micro-blogging platform.

The banks aren’t improving things for the local housing market, their other local assets, or the housing recovery itself with this methodology.  But, this conversation serves to continue to illustrate my point about the short sale crisis and its impact on the overall health and stability of our marketplace.  Love to hear your thoughts.

There has been much discussion about the big bailout.  But in case anyone with any influence is listening – I have an idea that could make a big contribution to our market recovery.  Just call anytime and I’ll share my insight with you – from the trenches.  I’ll be waiting for your call.

For the rest of you that might be curious about what I have in mind, I’ll share with you some of what happened to me this week.  Brace yourself because I feel a rant coming on….

As I have said countless times on this blog, short sales are a HUGE factor that is driving our market prices and inventory in Orange County.  For example, 64% of the active homes on the market today in Rancho Santa Margarita, under $500,000, are short sales!  In Mission Viejo, 50% of homes active on the market today under $500,000 are short sales. 

These short sales have offers that have been submitted to banks and are just awaiting approval.  They may have multiple offers.  This is buyer demand that is waiting and the last thing we need in this market is pent up buyer demand waiting.

I’d like to share with you a story about one of my short sale listings.  Within 72 hoursof listing the home back in May, I had 4 offers for asking price, and over.  We submitted them to the bank, along with the package from my seller that clearly qualified for a hardship.  The following dialogue is from this week between my short sale coordinator and the the banking institution’s (a very common and well known lender) negotiator.

My Short Sale Coordinator:

“We now had 4 buyer’s who have cancelled, including the last offer we submitted due to the fact that this process has taken almost 6 months.  We just can’t keep buyers around that long and we can’t keep the value the same for that period of time.  Values are dropping.  We do have another offer, but it is lower than any offer we have received.

“At this point we, as long with the seller, are at a loss as to what to do.  Do you have any suggestions, or any time frame that we can tell buyers?”

The Bank Negotiator:

“I will have to cancel this file because the buyers are no longer interested.  I suggest faxing in the new offer.  Because it is a new offer it will be considered a new file.  Anytime you have a new buyer it starts all over.  A short sale can take 4 - 6 months.  When you send in a  new contract the time frame starts all over. ”

The negotiator goes on to say that they are trying to make time frames shorter and the last response time was 30 days.  But in my experience, that response is inconsistent at best and clearly, they aren’t willing to commit to anything better than 4 to 6 months.

So what’s my big idea?  Let’s save a big bailout expense.  Forget giving money to banks with no accountability for how they use it.  Instead, let’s create an efficient, streamlined method of handling the massive number of properties that are in foreclosure and that are short sales. 

In the case of my listing, it may take one year to get a buyer in that property and a closed sale.  In the meantime, values are detrimentally impacted,  inventory remains misleadingly high,  property condition deteriorates, and suffering sellers can’t restart their lives.  If you shorten this process to 90 days, can you imagine the positive impact on our market?  Just think, 6 months ago I had 4 buyers that wanted to pay full or over list price.  Today’s buyers are thinking about 20% less than that.  THAT is a huge reason prices continue to decline in Orange County and in many parts of the country.

Maybe this is too simplistic.  Maybe this addresses only part of the problem.  But, if we are looking at some of the real, on the ground solutions for the much touted ‘Main Street,’ this seems like a great place to start.  Like I said, to those influential individuals and government institutions dying to hear my Bailout alternative, I’ll be standing by waiting for your call.

The new buyer profile today is understandably looking for a ‘good deal’.   With the major changes we’ve seen in Orange County in the last 2 years, the buyers that feel ready to jump into the market are consistently saying, ‘If I find a good deal…’

So what is a ‘good deal’?  Let’s examine the potential opportunities.  There are 3 types of listings that are predominately found in the active market today:

1. Short Sales
2. Bank Owned (or REO’s)
3. Traditional Sellers

Short Sales: A short sale is a listing in which the seller currently owes more than the home is worth in today’s market.  I have discussed the process of a short sale in other locations on this blog.  Do your homework here if you are interested in this type of purchase.  It is a process that will take time and not every short sale will actual sell.  Some seller’s don’t have a legitimate hardship (required for a bank to approve their short sale).  Some will go into foreclosure after weeks of tying up a buyer(s) hoping to buy that home.

Is this a good deal?  Maybe.  Remember, they are usually priced very low to attract offers.  A bank won’t even consider a seller’s hardship until they have an offer.  This may mean that the home is priced far below what the bank may ultimately take.  And if the home is in disrepair, you’ll need to add the cost of repairs into your calculation.  A short sale will take time, patience, and a little luck.  I have seen some ‘good deals’ here but you’ll need to go into the process with ‘eyes wide open’.

Watch for rising interest rates in the meantime.  This can impact your affordability.  Also, watch the market.  What may seem like a ‘good deal’ now, may not seem so great in 4 months when the short sale has been approved if the neighborhood values continue to decline.

Bank Owned or REO’s: This is generally some of the most aggressively priced inventory on the market in Orange and Riverside Counties.  The banks don’t want to carry the inventory and they are priced to move.   The decline in prices have reached a level that has become affordable again for the first time buyer and appealing to the investors.

Steven Thomas, President of Re/Max Real Estate Services recently said in his Market Time Report, “For those looking to find a great “deal” by offering to purchase a property far below the asking price of a distressed home, good luck.  Your chances are much greater in winning the California lottery….The sales to list price ratio, how close a home is sold compared to the asking price, is between 99% and 100% depending upon the price range.“  He continues to make the point that the way that they are priced is already a deal.

After recently working with a buyer on the purchase of a single family home, we consistently found ourselves in multiple offers on bank owned homes – and not just 2 or 3 offers.  Often times there were 10 + offers in place within 48 hours of listing.  Who was awarded the purchase of those homes?  Cash is king here my friends.  Those with cash down, few contingencies, solid credit, and a strong offering price came away with the home.

Traditional Sellers: Some parts of the market are moving more slowly than others.  The bulk of the distress sales, 93% according to Steven Thomas, are under the $750,00 price point and subsequently there is a great deal of pressure on prices in those lower price points.

Are there good deals with traditional sellers?  The short answer – Yes!  Most people that are listing their homes today understand that it is clearly a buyers’ market in Orange County.  They generally know that it won’t be easy and those that are motivated to sell, are pricing their homes to compete with the inventory.  And often times that inventory consists of short sales and banked owned homes, especially in the price points under $750,000.

The bonus on many of these, there still is pride of ownership.  Is a bank owned home still a good buy if there is $50,000 in cosmetic or structural repairs?  Maybe, but maybe not.

The Bottom Line: Seriously consider the potential for a great value from a realistic, traditional seller.  You’ll have the benefit of full disclosure from the seller (which you don’t have in bank owned homes), you’ll have the opportunity to request repairs, you won’t be competing with the buyers that are focused on – “I want to buy a foreclosure’, and you won’t be dealing with the unknowns and long waits of the short sale process.

If you find the great deal you’ve dreamt about in a short sale or bank owned, by all means, go for it.   But be an educated buyer and understand the process and expenses when determining if you really have a good deal!