So many of the media numbers focus on Orange County performance, but real estate performance can vary dramatically within our large county, and particularly at various price points.
Today’s Microscope on the Market focuses on the Laguna Niguel real estate market.
Homes Under $500,000
| # of Sales | Short Sales | Bank Owned | Equity Sellers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 119 | 63.9% | 5% | 31.1% |
| In Escrow | 71 | 53.5% | 29.6% | 16.9% |
| Closed* | 18 | 27.8% | 38.9% | 33.3% |
In the under $500,000 market, Laguna Niguel does not vary from any of the cities I focused on in South Orange County with a whopping 63.9% of the active properties in a short sale situation. Couple of things to note – it would appear that there is significant movement with 71 properties in escrow. Sadly, 38 of them are short sales and those can sit in escrow for 60 to 180 days and that can skew the perception of significant movement. Notice only 18 have actually closed escrow in the last 30 days.
I want to also point out the very low number of bank owned inventory. Pay close attention to this number in the coming months. It will increase again based on the end of the moratorium on Notice of Defaults. Filings are back up to levels prior to the moratorium so watch for this number to increase.
Also of note, despite the large supply of short sales, buyers still look to bank owned homes and equity sellers for their purchases by a significant degree in relation to the supply.
Homes $500,001 to $750,000
| # of Sales | Short Sales | Bank Owned | Equity Sellers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 83 | 32.5% | 3.6% | 63.9% |
| In Escrow | 29 | 65.5% | 3.4% | 31% |
| Closed* | 15 | 13.3% | 26.7% | 60% |
Again, despite the large number of short sales, buyers love bank owned inventory and it doesn’t last on the market and their is still a significant demand for reasonable equity sellers.
Homes Over $750,001
| # of Sales | Short Sales | Bank Owned | Equity Sellers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 147 | 8.2% | 2% | 89.8% |
| In Escrow | 30 | 30% | 0 | 70% |
| Closed* | 12 | 8.3% | 0 | 91.7% |
As I noted in Coto last week, there is just very little in the upper price points that is moving. At this rate of consumption (12 homes a month), we have a 12.25 month supply of homes. If nothing else were to list in this price range, it would take us over a year to consume the existing inventory with current buyer demand.
The good news in Laguna Niguel – there is very little bank owned inventory and very few short sale listings. That can be good news for values in the coming year. I’m not suggesting any appreciation guys – but even with slow sales, these folks may have the financial strength to hang on.
*Closed Sales are properties that have closed within the last 30 days from the time of this writing. **All information and statistics are from SoCalMLS and are deemed reliable but not guaranteed. If you have any questions about market conditions for Laguna Niguel, feel free to get in touch with me. I’m happy to help try to make sense of it all.
03 Apr 09 2:14 pm
Interesting, I just found your blog. I am an Agent in Salt Lake City, UTAH. My family has a home in Niguel Shores..Good info, and great stats. Really paints a very specific picture of the area. Obviously the beach front properties are a little different still? Maybe not as effected. Almost like our homes here on the ski resorts right?
07 Apr 09 10:49 am
If nothing else were to list in this price range, it would take us over a year to consume the existing inventory with current buyer demand.
10 Apr 09 3:52 pm
Linsey,
Hi again. Just wondering what you are seeing in your neck of the woods. We are experiencing what I think is the start of a recovery up here in Seattle. I am seeing a lot of bottom feeding on lower priced inventory. Last month we had more pending sales then in any month going back 20 months. Hopefully things ocntinue. Hope you are doing well.
Rob